Probabilidad de ocurrencia de incendios forestales en Apurímac
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Los incendios forestales son una inquietud global debido a su impacto negativo en los ecosistemas y la vida que albergan. En Perú, entre 2013 y 2017, se quemaron aproximadamente 200 mil hectáreas, siendo la región de Apurímac una de las más afectadas. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar un mapa de probabilidad de incendios forestales, basándose en 1312 registros recopilados entre 2003 y 2022, utilizando Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) y algoritmo de aprendizaje automático MaxEnt. Se usaron 17 variables ambientales predictoras (11 climáticas, dos orográficas y cuatro relacionadas con la actividad humana), seleccionadas estadísticamente de un total de 31 variables. La capacidad predictiva del modelo fue ‘buena’, con Área Bajo la Curva de 0.819. 5,4 % (1134.2 km2) y 15 % (3171.54 km2) de la superficie de Apurímac, principalmente en el norte, presentan ‘muy alta’ y ‘alta’ probabilidad de ocurrencia de incendios forestales, respectivamente. Los ecosistemas de matorral andino (561.25 km2), zona agrícola (277.01 km2) y pajonal de puna húmeda (230.37 km2) presentan las mayores superficies con probabilidad ‘muy alta’ de ocurrencia de incendios forestales. Los SIG y MaxEnt son herramientas útiles e importantes en la toma de decisiones preventivas y de lucha contra los incendios forestales.
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