Key Factors for the Increase of Scientific Production in Peru: Analysis of a Causal Approach and Computational Simulation

Abstract

Scientific production is crucial for a country’s economic and social development, advancing knowledge and innovation. In Peru, although it has grown in recent years, it still lags behind other Latin American countries. This article analyzes the key variables to increase scientific production in the country through an innovation system model that examines causal relationships and feedback between scientific production, technological development, and technology-based companies. Using a dynamic model based on the Forrester diagram and differential equations, a sensitivity and uncertainty study was conducted using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and partial correlation coefficients (PRCC). Peru’s population is growing due to a balance between births and deaths, but basic research investment is low, affecting the creation of technology-based companies. It is estimated that the number of researchers could exceed 33,000 by 2060. This work shows that to increase scientific production, it is necessary to increase the number of qualified personnel, properly employ this staff, increase their productivity, and implement mechanisms to prevent emigration.