SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF WATER BODIES AND THEIR PREDICTION TO 2031 IN AMAZONAS, PERU
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Abstract
Water bodies are important ecosystems that host great biodiversity and are the livelihood of many populations. The aim of this study was to analyze the temporal space of water bodies and their prediction to 2031, using remote sensing techniques in Amazonas. Landsat satellite images from the years 1988, 1998, 2007 and 2019 were used; as well as the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), for the creation of reports and cartographic representations of Land Cover and Use Change (CCUS). The data processing was carried out in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment and MOLUSCE model, to predict the CCUS for 2031. The results reported cartographic accuracies between 81 and 91 % and at the level of water bodies, Lake Pomacochas, Laguna Burlan and Laguna de los Cóndores will be reduced to 425,10; 45,24 and 121,54 ha, respectively. In recent years, surface temperature has increased, mainly in urban and vegetation-free areas. It is concluded that by 2031, water bodies will shrink due to human activities and the effect of climate change, negatively impacting the population and ecosystems.
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